Monday, December 22, 2008

Had to re-work the count...

With today's action taking out Thursday's low there was only one thing to do: and that is relook at the count and see where I went wrong. Corrective waves are so difficult to forecast because they can morph into so many different varieties of patterns. However, one thing is clear, we have not yet started our decent to new lows. How do I know that? Well, because these down patterns can only be one thing: corrective. Look at the chart below. This is a closeup to Thursday's and Friday's action. And there is only one way to chart that pattern. Now comes the hard part. Where do we go from here.




I have a couple of ideas. One is we are finishing up a flat and the other one is that we are doing a zigzag. Depending on where we go tomorrow, we'll know for sure. I'm leaning toward the zigzag pattern because a flat is a 3-3-5 pattern and although we could still make a 5 wave move to finish up the flat, the pricing pattern at the 1 min level looks too choppy for me to put a lot of confidence in this pattern. So I have mapped out a couple of alternatives at the 60 min level along with how I think price will move tomorrow at the 15min level.

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