Monday, March 2, 2009

Maybe a bounce tomorrow?





Well, we have technical indicators that are oversold and looking to turn up. We have all the minimum requirements for our w3. The question is do we bounce for our w4 now or do we go down more tomorrow. I guess I put my chips on more down move only because I'm still 100% short. Any bounce will be that a bounce. Why, well volume wasn't particularly high (it has to be for a washout and a solid bottom), I think we still have a lot of complacency in the market (vix still sitting near 50), as much as the market dropped today it was kind of a slow slide not a massive drop off a cliff. We haven't even reached the bottom trendline (see 15min chart) that should end up breaking before this is over. I think we still have a lot of supply (sellers trying to get out a higher prices) in the 730 area. Also, it is important to remember that we have crashed in the past when the technical indicators were showing oversold. That is a hallmark sign of a bear market. Things go from bad to worse right when people think it 'should' turn up simply because the indicators are pointing that way.


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