Tuesday, April 3, 2012
If you haven't seen it, go check it out. I recently updated the automated system after running it through 14 years of backtested data. Yes, that's right, 2 bear markets and all the bull markets in between. I've posted a video on a nice trade the system posted in January.
Posted by Rich at 10:18 PM
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Not much progress has been made in either direction the past few days. Either the bears take over soon or the bulls will drive this much much higher. The aggressive short would be to short the open if we open below ES 1325. A more conservative short would be to wait for a move below ES 1320. Anything above 1325 at the open leaves the door open for the bulls to run it up.
Posted by Rich at 10:12 PM
Sunday, April 3, 2011
As the market barely flinched last week at the 786 retracement from the highs, it became apparent that we weren't going to see new lows before we saw the highs tested.
So, that brought another look at the larger count to see where we might fit in. Symmetry between waves 2 & 4 are always something that I'm looking for. Corrective waves are so often a fib ratio with each other. So which corrective wave did this last move down fit with?? The wave 2 flat in a perfect 1:1 ratio. So there you have it: wave 2 flat, and wave 4 zigzag. We got perfect symmetry and an alternation.
Where do we go from here? The obvious is to look for a daily reversal of our 5th wave at key targets.
#1 Friday's high. It gives us a double top, a wave 5 = wave 1 symmetry (I labeled it .786 on the chart but that was because I first measured to the wave b high of the flat), and a perfect turn at the daily rsi resistance line. Any open below ES 1320 is shortable at the open. A daily reversal would be a close below 1325.
#2 Should the bulls come out tomorrow and push this up, then my next target is 1379 or the channel resistance line, whichever comes first. On a weekly basis, I would expect the rsi never to break the 80 level (it closed last week at 65).
Best of luck, and watch for the confirmation before getting aggressive.
Posted by Rich at 9:23 PM
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Okay already, I'm back to make an EW count. First off let me say that the bulls are really sticking it to the bears and the last week has been a perfect example. They have driven through resistance lines without even flinching. What value in the future they see, I have no idea, but there are enough of them that they are overwhelming all the sellers.
So, here are my counts:
#1 - We just completed an A-B-C-X and have an A-B-C to go.
#2 - We just completed an A-B-C and are going to take out new highs.
#3 - The market is very very wicked taking in all the buyers in an incredible wave 2 that fails tomorrow and continues to impulse down for weeks to come. I know, not likely, but someone has to put it on the table.
The market has already broken a weak channel resistance line and looks like it may be vulnerable at the 786 retracement zone. A gap down tomorrow is shortable.
Posted by Rich at 10:33 PM
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Yesterday saw what appears to be the last test of the support line and an upward explosion. The momentum was so fierce that it eclipsed the momentum of what I'm labeling the 'b' wave of 'C' leg of the triangle. This will be confirmed with a close above yesterday's highs. Assuming we don't get a 5th wave extension out of the triangle, which I'm not as this rally is already over spent, I would expect the 5th wave to end in the 1354/1360 area based on the size of the triangle.
Posted by Rich at 4:46 AM
Monday, March 7, 2011
Wow, can you get both scenarios so wrong??? Today's move down leaves us pretty much where were over the weekend, except the count has expanded.
Primary Scenario: Triangle has now moved up to my primary count based on the futures movement after hours. An open below today's low would eliminate this count.
Secondary Scenario: Added another subdivision to the wind up today. Tomorrow will open below today's low.
There you have it. Today cost me....
Posted by Rich at 7:28 PM