Tuesday, April 5, 2011


Not much progress has been made in either direction the past few days. Either the bears take over soon or the bulls will drive this much much higher. The aggressive short would be to short the open if we open below ES 1325. A more conservative short would be to wait for a move below ES 1320. Anything above 1325 at the open leaves the door open for the bulls to run it up.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Option #2 and where we are...

As the market barely flinched last week at the 786 retracement from the highs, it became apparent that we weren't going to see new lows before we saw the highs tested.

So, that brought another look at the larger count to see where we might fit in. Symmetry between waves 2 & 4 are always something that I'm looking for. Corrective waves are so often a fib ratio with each other. So which corrective wave did this last move down fit with?? The wave 2 flat in a perfect 1:1 ratio. So there you have it: wave 2 flat, and wave 4 zigzag. We got perfect symmetry and an alternation.

Where do we go from here? The obvious is to look for a daily reversal of our 5th wave at key targets.

Key targets:

#1 Friday's high. It gives us a double top, a wave 5 = wave 1 symmetry (I labeled it .786 on the chart but that was because I first measured to the wave b high of the flat), and a perfect turn at the daily rsi resistance line. Any open below ES 1320 is shortable at the open. A daily reversal would be a close below 1325.

#2 Should the bulls come out tomorrow and push this up, then my next target is 1379 or the channel resistance line, whichever comes first. On a weekly basis, I would expect the rsi never to break the 80 level (it closed last week at 65).

Best of luck, and watch for the confirmation before getting aggressive.