Well, the move off of yesterday's high 'looked' so impulsive on the 1 min chart. But, if what looks to be an impulsive wave does not take out a prior high or low (in this case low), then it always becomes suspect. And it turns out that this is one of those cases. Well, looking at the pattern on the 5 min level (see above chart), we have all the makings of a finished wave 4 except one: a new momentum low. To achieve that we need to go below ES 751. If the pattern is indeed finished, then I count it done with a running triangle to finish wave C. At this point wave C = wave A*.786, which is a valid fib relationship. Also, you'll note that price stayed below 780, which is where I thought any rally would die. So...with fingers crossed...let's see if we can take out that low tomorrow morning and get some real selling going.
Now, if we break today's high, then the next major resistance line would be in the 785-790 area. So there is still a lot of work for the bulls to go before they can even think of declaring a double bottom. Taking out 741 will erase those dreams and should get some acceleration to the downside.
The two charts below are my updated 15min and 60min charts as it is always nice to look at the big picture. The fact that we broke out of the channel doesn't worry me yet, as a false breakout is very bearish, and that is where I'm placing my bets.
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