Well, I hope everyone else did better than I did today. I pretty much got spanked. The morning opened according to plan, so I never put any stops on my futures I was holding short. Boy did that hurt! I did cover half my position for a nice fat loss, but that is what happens when you don't follow your rules. I implore everyone to follow your rules. If you don't have any, then get some!

The chart up top is the big picture. On days like today, it is important to keep the big picture in front of you. We are trading in the direction of the overall trend, so don't let one day spook you. The blue horizontal lines highlight major support and resistance lines. Keep those in mind through out the day.

Now, to the charts. Today's rally made things very messy. So, I've put together a few different scenarios, so it is nice to have those in the back of your mind as the day unfolds tomorrow.



This chart is the most bearish case. Essentially, we turn down immediately and never look back.



This chart should be watched closely because in this instance we turn down but find support (likely in the 50%-61.8% fib retracement zones) and turn back higher. This would launch one mega short squeeze.



This chart is where we likely gap up possibly above the trendline only to quickly lose steam. It is highly unlikely we would stage a massive rally w/o a pullback first, but I've been wrong before. It is afterall, a game of probabilities and risk/reward setups. Under this scenario the move should be reversed within the first 60 minutes of the US trading hour (by 10:30EST).

So there you have it. If you're holding feb puts, and we don't immediately run a bearish case, then I would sell them before the end of the day.