Saturday, December 20, 2008

Santa Claus Rally?

The EW pattern strongly suggests we get one. However, if Friday's low doesn't hold, then I'll need to do a full re-evaluation on where we go from there. If I have correctly identified the pattern, then Monday should be a strong up-day, possibly with a nice unclosed gap up in the morning and continued strength into Christmas.

I have three charts here. The 1st one is a close up on Friday's price action. All of it has bullish undertones with clear corrective patterns. On Thursday I said I expected a retest of the Thursday lows on Fridays and that is exactly what we have (right now). If price doesn't hold here, then we have more downside to go, but the pattern (at least right now) still looks bullish.

The 2nd Chart is a 15min chart showing a little bit more of the picture. With the last chart (60mins) giving a nice broad view of the forest and where I think price action travels from here over the next 1-2wks to finish off wave 4 (a double zigzag). Once prices get into the red zone, then I will be exiting my longs and begin building significant short positions. Most likely in my favorites: GS & AAPL along with the Nas100 and S&P500 indices.


Post a Comment