Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Tomorrow defines the pattern

With today's gap up and and ramp up, it appears I was a little too optimistic on my wave 4. Instead it was a smaller wave 4 and we are now either in the middle of a minor wave b correction or just finished a wave 2 correction at today's high. With that said we are at a crossroads on how we label the bear structure so far. Is it a correction or the start of primary wave 3? With the biggest correction we've seen so far and its clearly impulsive nature, I don't think we there is any doubt that we are at least in intermediate wave B, but how it starts out is very important.

The Primary Wave B Scenario
In this scenario we just completed our minor wave A at yesterday's low. We have now completed the a-b part of minor wave B and should follow it up with a wave c tomorrow. There are two major resistance areas that align themselves with a fib retracement. These areas sandwich the target zone: spx 915-930. With the extreme range for tomorrow being 930 and the normal high 924, look for some major upside if we open tomorrow near or higher than today's close.

The Primary Wave 3 Scenario
In this scenario we have completed a 1-2, 1-2 off of the high and will begin a 3 of 3 tomorrow. We will slice through 875 in this scenario. Look for a gap down below today's low to get the selling going.

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