Thursday, October 29, 2009


So much for a pause bar. The market gapped open and no retest was to be found. The million dollar question is what caused the tremendous rise? If you said the GDP numbers you might be right, but probably for a reason you weren't thinking. You see, the rise today was in direction correlation in the selloff of the US$. The US$ likely sold off for two reasons: (1) it was very overbought and due for a pullback and (2) the upside in GDP likely created a selloff in the US$ as the liquidity would increase with the expansion of the economy vs. the opposite when the economy is contracting. So there you have it.

As for the count, well, there was no way to label today's price action as a wave 4 as it was much too strong. I've put up a scenario that shows that we finished wave 1 and are starting wave 2, which we would expect to be swift and sharp (today's price action would certainly qualify under both). We are coming up on overhead resistance tomorrow, so we should see a wave b pull back before we go higher. If this market gets a strong close above 1076 then we are likely going to retest the highs or extend. If we drop below today's low, then wave 2 will be complete, and we should see several weeks of selling.


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