Tuesday, January 5, 2010

5 waves complete?

The move off of Thursday's low was so quick in the cash index it has left the EW count a bit in the fog, so I decided to have some help from the 24 hr ES chart to see if something might be a bit more clear.

Taking a look at this chart it appears that we may have a completed 5 wave pattern in play. What would confirm it? Well, we would need a drop below 1130 SPX, and if that happens, then we likely have our final C wave in place. Of course, subdivisions is this bear market rally's hobby, so we still need a move below 1094 to confirm the direction. But we would have a ST change-in-trend that we should be able to milk for something and possibly a lot more.

What do we need for the bullish picture, a continuation move tomorrow (starting with a gap up would be nice). Price has stayed around here to long and there are already many divergences showing up. The bulls need a strong push (all day long) to the upside to clear those divergences and give them breathing room for a future retracement. Any gap up that fills would be bearish. Any gap down that doesn't fill would be 'ultra' bearish.

Key Support Levels: 1130/1133 and 1120/1122. A move below 1115 is the initial confirmation for a change in trend.

Key Resistance Levels: 1140/1142 and 1155/1158
blog comments powered by Disqus