Sunday, June 20, 2010

Weekend Analysis

Well, after reviewing the charts over and over here is my conclusion:

- The Minute wave 2 flat is out and the minor wave 2 triple zigzag is in.

Look over the following chart, and I'll show you how I came to my conclusion:

Looking at the 30 min RSI(5) you can clearly see that there is the lack of a 5th wave before RSI(5) swings from high to low. In a 5th wave you will see divergence build up with a lower high on the RSI(5) and a higher high on the price chart. That does not happen at all (except maybe at a lower time frame).

The next thing you should note is that each 'B' wave is about 12 points. The first 'X' wave was 25 points and the 2nd 'X' wave was 16 points. In addition you should not that we are in the final 'C' wave of our larger 'Z' wave of minor wave 2.

The price target for minor wave 2 is as follows:
- The 50% retracement is directly overhead at 1130. In addition, c=a*.786 at this same level.
- There are some other fib relationships starting at 1126 and move to 1139.
- Heavy resistance starts at 1145/1148
- There is an open gap at 1160
- Price in this final C wave could attempt an overthrow of the channel, but it is not likely.
- Any drop below 1107 should begin minor wave 3.
- It appears that 85-90 is key on the RSI(5) to trigger a reversal. I do not expect any divergence to show up on this chart.

Now let's see how the market behaves...

Best of luck!
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