Monday, February 9, 2009

Any drop from here is likely fatal...



The bulls and bears played tug of war today. The bulls got a new high, but it was quickly given back. The bears strength in the afternoon gave way and the bulls pulled back. Where do we go from here?

The charts are looking like any move down from here is likely fatal to the bulls. It will be important that they don't lose any more ground. 850 would likely fail and that would cause all kinds of selling to 830, 810, 760, etc. Anyway, you get the picture. Instead, the bulls need to keep the press on and push this higher. Will it happen? I don't know. The market is playing this one close to the vest. I see hints of a sustained bear move, but then the bulls hold their ground. Look for those key areas: 850 support and 870 resistance. Whichever one gives first is the likely clue.

My preferred count (above) and my second count (below). Best to your trading!

2 comments:

  1. Rich, you nailed it right on the head today - nice work. I'm expecting a small bounce (we may have already had it) before cracking through the running triangle at 825ish and then lights out to test lows. I think your bearish graph pinpoints it perfectly

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  2. I don't think I'm going to try and pronounce your name ;-). I covered 2/3rds of my daytrade shorts at the close just in case we gap lower tomorrow. If not, no big deal, I'll load up again around 830.

    Best of luck!

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