Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Much patience is required to kill this bull...


What a day! The market behaved erratic at best. Highs were given up to test the lows, but just when you thought you had the bull on the ropes, the market rallies back to the highs. Where do we go from here?!!

Well, there are some pretty strong emotions at play here: hope and fear. Hope that the government will make all this bad stuff go away. Fear that whatever the gov't does won't work. With the market once again looking over a high cliff, the gov't hearings are akin to the psychologist trying to talk the man off the ledge of the skyscraper. I can almost hear him saying, "Come on it's going to be alright. No more foreclosures, no more credit defaults or bankruptcies. You'll wake up tomorrow and all of this will be gone. Now come down off that ledge!". Problem is, these problems aren't going away. The stock market knows it, but it wants to triple check, no (whats the word for 6x?) that this is the right decision. I hate to say it, but Mr. Market, it's the right decision!! Go ahead and jump!



Here's a picture of the 1min chart. My best guess at this is we put in a flat pattern. This is where the previous lows are tested and hold but the highs are tested and hold also. The next move would require a fail of the lows. If we break and hold yesterday's high, then the market will attempt to break 840 and then 850. If 850 is broken to the upside, then I'll have to re-evaluate my options.

3 comments:

  1. While the market does its triple check, I have to say a great call on today's 23% retrace!

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  2. Love the analysis. We're over at http://chaudhryandcole.com/ I'll be checking back often.

    -Andy

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  3. Andy,

    Glad to hear you like it. Looks like you have the start of something good over at your site. Best of luck, and I look forward to any insights you have.

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