Tuesday, April 14, 2009

We need some more downside confirmation

Well, we got a little selling today, but nothing to get too excited about. We're still in the area where we could push for one more high. Once we break the bottom trendline, we should reach our 780-800 zone shortly.


  1. Hey Rich, this is Tom in Wilm, NC. I guess we are all dumbfounded at this continuous rally; and did you see the futures just jump up strong at about 8:00 pm est? What? Since I started following your blog, I of course have been reading others such as Tony C's...and everybody has been calling for a "correction" or some sort of retracement...but it has not come? To me all these corrections/retracements HAVE occurred intra-day all along; and this market just wants to march on. People have drawn bearish rising wedges convinced the 864 print was the top; but we came down and hit the bottom wedge line and we are going back up to maybe 875ish?
    Some people have drawn channels...again we just bounced off the bottom line and could go to 950ish?
    Do we need to conclude we are going to at least the Jan 6th highs of 943.85 to even beging thinking of a correction? I see an Inverted Head and Shoulders on the Daily SP500, taking us to that Jan 6th high to complete.
    Also, in my opinion, we did not start the Bear market until May ish 2008, and if you draw a retracement from the high in May 2008 to the low in March 2009...the first 38.2% retrace is 962, just above the Jan 6th highs. We are currently fighting the Financials; with JPM, C, and BAC still to report, along with GOOG..I doubt if they will disappoint and goose this market again and again. 962 is the 38.2% retrace as I mentioned earlier and the 50 week mva is at 1050 ish now. I believe all these financial earnings are complete bogus crap...we will eventually know the truth; but until then, this market will continue to climb only to fall really really hard. Is it time in regards to EW to recount the waves (let go of the small a,b,c or 1,2,3 or 4 or whatever counts) and think out on a bigger time frame? Your comment the other day.."We will drop like a rock" was a bit pre-mature don't you think? BS earnings are keeping this rally alive and we can't fight it; AND something (either the Plunge Protection Team, FED, or some Institution(s) are falsely propping this market up, in an attempt to trap us. I have been scared to death to go Long; but from here to 962 could make me alot of money????????

  2. kidflare, you should be very very scared to go long here. When this market is done the correction will not be pretty. I certainly may have been early, but I always said we were right in the zone where one more push higher could be in the cards. The last leg was a not a perfect a-b-c which is what I would like to see in the ED, but it did fill all of the price requirements. So we are stuck in the middle, no mans land. Either you wait for a break of the trendline to the downside or short 870 like crazy if we get there. We will not go to 950 w/o a correction. Now that isn't to say that we won't get there, but this bull trap is getting sophisticated, and as soon as you give in you know it will reverse. If nothing else, better to stay on the sidelines.

    As for the EW count, if we break 880 then I will reconsider my counts. For now, we are in the middle and have to wait for a clue.