Thursday, April 16, 2009

With OpEx tomorrow, expect volatility


Okay, so far so good. We now have a clear A-B-C ending pattern. We now only need to wait for the official end of C. A close beneath the 8 SMA on the 60 min cash index should be our signal. Not to say that once we break it we won't attempt a retest of the highs, only that the highs should be in. At the close, it was sitting at 857.4. The futures are already trading at 858 area, which would be about 861 on the SPX, so we are getting very close. The MACD is showing major divergence now with all three high pivots of the ED. My prediction for tomorrow, a run at the highs, a marginal new high, double top, or complete failure, a close down and massive gap down on Monday. We'll see how it plays out.

10 comments:

  1. We have see the top or mybe tomorrow we will see high between 874 and 880. Eventually do last shooting will stop most traders. I expect a flat closing for tomorrow possibly to a negative closing.
    http://rounderstrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/spx-crazy-day-tomorrow.html

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  2. Also wanted to mention 4/17/09 ( April 17th ) is a FIB date

    SPX made AB=CD 29TD.
    4/17/09 100% AB [11/21/08Low to 1/6/09High] 29TD = CD [3/6/09L to 4/17/09H] 29TD

    Something to keep in mind.

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  3. Rich - are you taking trades using 60 min charts? Are you trading full time?

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  4. HowToTrade, I position trade with the structure of the 60 min charts. Sometimes I use the smaller timeframes to time my entries. I am currently working as a consultant, so sometimes my day is full and sometimes it is not. I have been working on adding daytrading to my skills, so that I can trade the morning session. So far, my results are meager, but I am making progress. It is quite a bit different, but I think it will become very useful to keep my money working between longer time frame setups. And who knows, maybe have enough capital that I can choose to FT trade.

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  5. Rich, where do you get your charts from?

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  6. The charts I post are amibroker charts. It is a desktop charting program, and I pull in my broker (IAB) real-time datafeed to populate it. Overall it works really well for this purpose. I use ninjatrader for my actual trading.

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  7. Hello Rich...this is Tom in Wilm, NC. I have to admit, I certainly appreciate your responses to my posts; as they are somewhat negative to your thoughts...gee, I wonder if I will be classified as a "Right Wing Extremist" now; can you believe what our Homeland Security people are up to?
    OK...we hit a high today of 875.63...very close the the number so many people are watching to complete the Rising Wedge formation to be followed by this "Correction" so many have been calling for. I don't think that will happen. This entire Rally has been because of the Financials; even though we know the earnings are complete BS. The regional banks are killing it.
    We have Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse next to report earnings next week. Do you think for one minute they will disapppoint this market. No way! = more upside to take place. Instead of looking at Wedges or Channnels or even the EW counts, we might want to examine the BKX index for direction. Today it broke thru resistance set at Nov 24th 2008; it earlier broke thru (Daily Charts) the 50 mva and retested it and is now heading for the 200 mva.It has a long way to go. The Financials are leading this market; not any theories or wave counts. Even the $NYSI, the Ny Summation Index is still climbing. Tony C has a possible print of 882 if I recall correctly and NEoWave has some big prints of 950 - 1000 on the SP 500...I think this current Rising Wedge to end at 876 is going to fall back just a bit and continue on up to 950 ish...as the remaining Earnings will be BS fantastic. The Wedge will fail in my opinion. Yes we know the earnings are bogus..but there is the presence of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) ie our FED, Obie One (Obama) and his pied piper Tim G that are all propping this market up. Until the Financials fall via the BKX, we will continue up. Dr Robert McHugh even has a scenario we go to 12,000 on the Dow before we even have any substantial correction. We have this potential Grass Roots Tea Party thing going on...and I see Obie One doing everything he can do to squash that by driving this market up even higher and higher via his PPT. I am looking more at what is "in my face" than techincal wedges, counts etc. Conclusion: bull run until May 15th

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  8. Tom, I'll post a chart this weekend showing a massive sell signal that is amazingly accurate at calling small corrections. When you put the sell signal in context with the larger technical picture, the odds of a wave B correction become overwhelmingly high. I know it is difficult to see anything but straight up, but that is what the market does to people. We want to forecast into the future the progression of the past. That is one of the reasons why people lose so much money in the market.

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