Wednesday, July 22, 2009

It looks like a top, at least a ST top

Okay, I hate to get overly excited about the patterns before they develop, but (so far) the price pattern sports a completed wave pattern. Let's peel back the covers and take a look:

- my w5 price target of 958-962 was hit today (high of 960)
- the pattern before the top was put in clearly sports the look of a triangle, which is a pattern before the finish (w4)
- the overal look into the finish looks like a messy ED, which makes sense because EDs occur when the market has pushed too far too fast w/o taking a breather, which certainly fits this pattern.
- the look off the top so far is reading impulsive. Unfortunately it is unclear if we have a 1-2, 1-2 or a small a-b-c at this point. We'll know tomorrow if we get a 3 of 3 or some more upside before a continuation.
- we are right in the zone of some very good turning points (solar eclipse, the annual 7/22-7/23 dates, and some other indicators I've found across the web)
- massive divergences have formed on the 60 min charts
- the daily chart is showing extreme overbought conditions
- the weekly chart is showing overbought

Of course, what we don't know is are we in a wave b or the beginning of primary wave 3. But that should show itself fairly quickly. I'll be watching how the price unfolds tomorrow and how we approach the 930 level. If we are in a B, then the 930 level is likely to hold (but especially the 915 level). If they don't then I will be leaning towards primary wave 3. We won't have confirmation until 869 breaks though.


  1. just to be a devil's advocate.....and i do love your analysis.....what would/could change your mind and make you bullish after this B wave or before

  2. Bullish as in we're going to new highs? The only thing that will make me bullish is if the balance sheets of the citizens of this great nation become strong once again, gov't reigns in spending and balances the budget, and unemployment drops below 7%. Or the stock market actually becomes cheap (trailing p/e below 10). But I don't imagine any of that will happen any time soon.