Tuesday, September 29, 2009

The choices narrow...

Today's price action acted exactly as expected with a completed 5 wave pattern. Support held in the area of the previous 4th wave (a good rule of thumb), but the move off the low lacked the conviction we would expect at the start of a 3rd wave. With that said, we should see a move to lower lows tomorrow morning (unless it all clears out in the Asia/Europe sessions).

Whenever I look at wave patterns, I'm a firm believer that the simpler pattern must get the bigger weight. Since we just completed a five impulsive pattern, I will lean bullish in the move lower until we solidly break Monday's low (1047 area in the cash market). Doing this should break the trendline and load up the sellers. With the USD getting stronger, it wouldn't surprise me to see this trendline really break. If not, then we can feel content, that the end is near as we finish the leg of this 'C' wave.


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