Thursday, September 10, 2009

Little weakness as the market pushes forward

While we never got out test of 1020, we did get a test of yesterday's low even though the market put in a new high during the AH sessions. That is a good reason why I don't put a lot of emphasis when counting 1 min waves as the bigger timeframes always trump them.

So, the question is now where are we in the bigger picture. It looks like we are making our way towards my previous 1050-1070 target. There is a lot resistance in the 1050-1055 zone, so it will be interesting to see what the market does when it gets there.

The chart looks like it completed another wave structure at today's high although which one is still up for grabs. I have a couple of my best counts depicted.

More Pullback tomorrow:
Today completed the first part of a zigzag and we should get a decent pullback but still should hold the 1020 zone, and then we march to new highs to my target of 1050-1070.

Little pullback before a new high:
In this scenario our pullback should be light (maybe in the 1030-1035 area) before we retest the highs in a wave 5 either completing the whole pattern or just the first leg in the zigzag. Any pullback from here should not break our rising wedge support line unless the move is over.

In the end, watch the USD. It looks like it may be making a finishing move in an ED, that its reversal will likely coincide with the market top. The VIX is also showing some major divergences, so that may likely be another leading indicator. Hang in there bears, the bulls time is near up.

1 comment: