Friday, March 26, 2010

Friday Update

Well, the market is once again making things difficult on the bears. The price pattern we have right now needs to immediately sell off on Monday otherwise it looks like just another on going correction. We have a price channel formed and today's action kept things nice and tidy within that channel. Friday's are notorious for keeping with the week's momentum and in the end all we got was a doji. But are there things that should also keep the bulls anxious? Of course, and here you go:

- Big rally in Europe and Asia, but nothing on Friday for the U.S.
- Friday's tend to keep the momentum of the week. When they don't, then that is a warning sign of a potential short term change in trend. Since the Feb low, 5 of the 8 Friday's closed green. The last three Friday's...all red.
- The trend channel since the Feb low was broken to the downside on Friday and was never able to recapture it during the session.
- Treasury yields are rallying.
- The Dollar broke out of its trading range to the upside. When will the market re-align with the Euro? If it does, then that would spell doom for the market.

Here are the charts. Key to the bear scenario is a sustained move below Friday's low. If the bulls can get above 1170, then the odds increase for a retest of the highs.
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