Thursday, March 25, 2010

I'm all in short...

Well, today ran to a new top as expected, stalled and reversed in what is looking (so far) as a nice impulsive pattern. The sell signal on the daily MACD was once again confirmed with an outside reversal bar on the daily chart. In addition, we got our 10 day ATR sell signal to trigger today. If price cooperates, we'll see an acceleration gap down tomorrow.

While I am charting the price action as a subminuette wave 1 in progress, we'll have to see if we are just getting a 5th wave extention (micro wave 5.3) or are truly in subminuette wave 1.3. Certainly we have the technical indicators lined up for a big move, but we'll see if we get it on a Friday. Look for market to find lots of support around 1152.

My initial target for this sell signal is the 786 retracement of this last wave at 1074. I would expect significant resistance at this area before any lasting move lower. Of course as in all trades, nothing is a guarantee. We still have to clear a lot of other hurdles to even get to 1074, so moving stops down will be important until we have a very clear impulsive move to the downside.
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