Monday, May 10, 2010

Minute wave 2 in progress ?

It's always nice when the market wipes out your forecast before the opening bell. I hope it was obvious to everyone that the triangle scenario was off the table from the get go.

With that said, I've made some revisions to the primary count:

- Minute Wave 1/a ended on the Thursday spike low. Should the market shrug off 1185/1195, then we will see new uptrend highs and the spike low was just a wave b. I'm not getting too caught up in the identification of the waves because it all happened so quickly. Time will tell us for sure what it was.

- Minute Wave 2/b is currently in progress with strong resistance starting at 1175 and ending at 1195. We are currently in the 5th wave of wave C. If this is a bullish move, then we are in the 5th wave of wave 3.

- Some had conjectured that the retest of the lows was a failed 5th wave. Well, it doesn't fit well in the pattern as such. In addition, it only retraced ~62% of the move down, which is consistent with a wave 2 and not a failed 5th wave (I look for at least a 78.6% retracement).

I'll be watching time parity between waves 1 & 2. Wave 1 took 10 trading days, and we are currently in day 3 of wave 2. We could see wave 2 bounce around here for the rest of the week.

Best of luck!
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