Sunday, May 23, 2010

Sorry for the late post...

...well all I have to offer for an excuse is this:

- we had 3 birthdays last week (and twins turning 16 is no small matter)
- we had various trackmeet finals
- we had one banquet
- we're trying to find a cheap 3rd car (for the 16 yr olds)
- our 2 yr old has not been sleeping much...

So, essentially I had no energy left to put up a post Thursday night (although I did get half of one ready ;-), but it never got finalized. Now it is nearly 11:30pm Sunday night, and I'm still really tired, but here is what I have.

Friday's move off the low has nothing behind it (as of yet), since it occured without significant volume (relative to the prior 2 bars), and it happened on options expiration week. There is essentially one bullish count and a few bearish counts. Here are my top three:

- Minuette wave 3 is over and we're heading into a minuette wave 4 triangle that should finish up by Tuesday. From where we get a 5th wave extention that takes us down to at least the 930 area to finish off a Minuette wave 3. Finalizing the degree of trends is of course subject to change.
- Subminuette wave 1 is over and we're heading into a subminuette wave 2 zigzag that will finish up Monday or Tuesday morning.
- The bottom is now in and we move up strongly from here on out as yet another intermediate correction is behind us.

Now, with those counts on the table, here are the facts that the Bulls need to be aware of:

- We have our first monthly reversal since the March 2009 low. The medium term is now down until we get a monthly reversal to the upside. From here the market would have to turn around and go straight to new highs. I'm not putting high odds on that occurring.
- The weekly trend channel support from the March 2009 low and the July 2009 low has been broken.
- The weekly trend is now down, and will continue to be until a weekly reversal occurs. This happens with a move above 1180.
- There is very little support under the market if and when 1030 falls to the bears. The next strong support from there is 930 and then 880.

Take care and best of luck!
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