Monday, February 23, 2009

Some nice selling today, but we're not even close...


From the opening bell, the sellers took over and pretty much owned the bulls the whole day. My low target of 785 did get hit during the European futures market (the high was 786). With a low at 741, it looks like the bulls are now playing a double bottom, but it won't hold. To many sellers left and not enough buyers to sustain anything. There is nothing in the pattern that requires further downside action tomorrow; however, we are in a 3rd wave, so there are certainly odds of more selling.

Here are my scenarios:
- If we can close above 755 on an hourly bar in the two hours of the US market, then we are likely in another wave 4 and will try and hit my targets of 770-790.
- If we can't do it, then selling should accelerate at least to the 720-725 area. We are getting oversold on a number of indicators; however, we haven't gotten enough oversold yet to get worried of a sustained rally. Besides, we're in a bear market. Oversold can become more oversold and so on and so forth.

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