Sunday, August 2, 2009

I'm Back and trying to figure this one out

Well, I'm back from enjoying great weather at California's north coast and re-energized to take on this market. From the looks of things, we got a very very shallow wave B. It really is hard to put a solid label on it though because it is so shallow; however, it does not match up with any other wave formation. So for now, I'll leave it at that.

Price since the wave b end was fast and furious. It looks like sellers came in hard that first day (7/30). Since then it has been a back and forth battle. There is nothing definitive to the downside action that would make me confident that this bull is dead, so we'll have to see what clues the market gives us this week. Risk of a major pull back is increasing daily as long as this market doesn't give anything back. I'll quickly hit a few items now:

- The monthly RSI(5) is now sitting near 60. The highest level since the bear market began and a prime area to get turned away. It can certainly go higher, but the winds get more fierce from here on out.
- The weekly RSI(5) is showing divergences with the intermediate A wave.
- The daily RSI(5) is showing divergences with the minor A wave.
- The hourly indicators have already turned over, so any immediate upside will add to divergences on the hourly chart.
- The 38.2% retracement of the first bear move is sitting overhead at 1016. We may or may not get there but certainly we are close.
- We've already hit my minimum target for this wave C. My original turn dates of 8/8 - 9/8 are just around the corner. There is no guarantee we make it that far since we never got a good pull back.

Pull backs build the foundation for higher levels. When the market keeps pushing in one direction w/o one, then when the pullback comes it is a whopper. A whopper at this stage would like put us back into the downtrend, so that is why I'm extra cautious at this stage.


  1. Is it time to consider the NAS is leading?

    All other counts and predictions mean nothing?

  2. A look at this weekly SPX shows that intermediate wave-c should could easily reach S&P 1200 before the abc completes..$SPX&p=W&st=2002-10-01&i=p28721677111&a=67200081&r=546

  3. Terri, certainly the nasdaq has been leading the market. However, I would not say that the nasdaq now represents the US economy like the dow did back in the 30s. But it certainly represents the highest beta sectors and will likely get crushed accordingly as the recession deepens.

    Jean, of course the spx could go to 1200, but I doubt it is going there w/o some working off of this overbought condition. The key will be where we are once we reach a status of being oversold on the daily charts. If we're above 900, then we may go to 1200. If we're below 870, then it likely won't go to 1200 for many many years.