Monday, August 10, 2009

The price pattern hedged today...

The market rarely makes it easy on the technician and today is no exception. The top charts go from most bullish to most bearish. Let's look at the bull/bear facts:

- The move down could be impulsive, but it wasn't widly so
- We had our biggest correction since we started this rally a month ago
- Add to that all of the factors in my last post

- The move down just penetrated the 61.8% retracement of the last move before turning up
- The move down could be labeled an a-b-c correction where c=a*.618
- Price has yet to get a confirmed break of the channel

You know my targets if this is a bear setup (see yesterday's post). If this is a bull setup, then I'm looking at the 1025 - 1035 area (top of the channel). I won't have confidence in the bull target until we get a confirmed break of 1015. The bear case needs a confirmed break of today's low.

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