Wednesday, August 19, 2009

What will it be...

With a nice gap down, the bulls took over once again pushing the market higher for the rest of the day. As the market has a tendency to put the high/low for the week on Monday/Tuesday, we now have a bullish bias the rest of the week. Combining that with a generally bullish options expiration Friday, and that would lean me towards a bullish or mildly bearish scenario. While there is still a fully bearish scenario on the table, I'm no longer giving it much weight.

Bullish Scenario:
We are currently in a wave 3, we should see a constant bid under the market all of tomorrow. We should break or test the highs by Friday. However, looking at the 5 min chart (below), The pattern currently is sporting a corrective look with a triangle in the wave 2 position (which doesn't happen) making it a 'b' wave.

Mildly Bearish Scenario:
We are topping in a B wave, and should top tomorrow with higher prices than today's close. I'm looking in the 1002-1004 area for a reversal.

Fully Bearish Scenario:
We will begin a wave 3 of 3 tomorrow when prices reverse. The top could still be in the same area as the mildly bearish scenario. The difference should be a stronger selloff into the rest of the week with a break of today's lows by Friday.


  1. I am now fully bearish S&P trading in a downward channel and failed to break above neckline today (See my most recent post)

  2. If we see a reverse at 1004 [we are there as I write this] today [20th].... you will be a prophet in my book! :-)
    [BTW:I'm bearish]