Monday, August 9, 2010

I'm Back and Ready...

We had a great time up in the Redwoods of California near the Oregon coast, and now we're back with the on rush of school (yes school starts today!), sports, and life.

Now to the charts. After reviewing last week's action, here's what I have.

1. Drawing a support line from the lows of the past few months and then creating a parallel line to form the upper channel off of the high lets us see that price is nearing a very important area. If this channel is not going to hold, I would expect price to bust through this based on the hourly EW counts.

2. Here is the hourly chart with a bullish count. The three dotted lines on the chart are a regression channel with the solid line showing an extension of the channel into Friday's low. Currently the regression channel will break down with a price move below Friday's low, so it is important that price move up now for a bullish scenario. Today should be a breakout day (gap up and go) if this is the count. Price needs to get above last week's high and give a solid break out from here. Price target of a break out from here is a new rally high (above April's high).

3. On the other hand I have been charting that the top is in that we are in minor wave 2. This area is a perfect place for minor wave 2 to end, so a gap up that fails to accelerate is a perfect low risk / high reward bearish trade. Let's see if it comes this morning (go short after the first 15 min if it is a down candle with a stop 1 pt above the bar).

Best of luck!
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