Sunday, August 22, 2010

Weekend Update

I decided to go ahead and post the charts at different time frames. The market has a bunch of pent up energy that should be released to the downside starting this week. It will be quite disappointing if the bears decide to not show up in mass and get their job done. We shall see.

Let's start with the 15 min chart. You have to take option expiration not too seriously as other motives are at work. With that being said, I expect either a solid move down Monday morning at the open or a bit of continuation to the upside to finish off a wave 2 flat. Either one is valid. If the market gaps down, then I'll short the open. If it gaps up, I'll short a 5 min reversal bar.

The hourly chart shows us the major line in the sand for the bears: the 34 SMA. Currently at 1083 and dropping, it should hold any upwards price action. If the bulls can get a solid breakout, then I'll have to change my short term bias to bull.

The daily chart shows divergence forming on the RSI(5). If it doesn't hold, then that will support a capitulation move on the part of the bulls. A close below Friday's low should do it.

A quick look at the weekly chart clearly shows the amount of downside potential (with major support at 955). The RSI(5) has plenty of room to run to the downside should the bulls throw in the towel.

Best of luck!
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