Wednesday, August 25, 2010

So far the knife catchers have it...

Well, the buy zone I identified in last night's post was certainly bought with a fury. Will it last though is the big question. So far it was worth 15+ ES points, but will it be a homerun? The current charts are pointing to more selling beginning tomorrow. So if the market doesn't, then look out. I'll be getting bullish if the market can get a close above 1070.

As for the bear count, I have two possibilities:

(1) A subminuette wave 4 with a 5 down coming tomorrow with at least a slightly lower low
(2) We are currently in a subdivided wave 2. I actually like this count better because we have yet to experience a 30-40 pt true range day to the downside, which is what I would expect to see during this wave down. I don't see it happening in my first scenario unless wave 5 subdivides.

Continue to watch the hourly 34 SMA. If we touch it tomorrow, we should get a strong sell reaction. If we don't, then prepare to go long.
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