With today's drop, we got our preferred scenario. We have now met all the requirements for an impulse wave except one: confirming that it is complete. Closing above ES 815 on a 30 min basis is probably the first clue that the wave is over. Getting over ES 853 will be our 2nd. We should get some kind of scary short covering rally that will push this up to retest the breakdown of the trendline around ES 910. Not sure we actually get that high, but it is possible. I will start acquiring my Feb/Mar puts starting around ES 880. I will likely put on a 2x position in this order: 880 (1/2), 890 (1/2), 900 (1/2), 910 (1/2). If we break 940, then I'll be looking for the next down move to exit.
Here I show the bigger picture with the 60 min chart. This wave should end with some massive capitulation. Look for a move down to SPX 550-650 range. We will need this to set the stage for a multimonth bull rally to the SPX 1000-1050 range.
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Thanks Rich.
ReplyDeleteRich
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis. Thanks for the clear cut talk. I like it because you do not beat around the bush.
Rich, I have the same count
ReplyDeleteAs far as wave 1 down of wave 5, I think we are at wave 3 of 4 of 5 down and should complete tomorrow morning
ssny,
ReplyDelete3 of 4 of 5? You got me confused on that one. What time frame is your last wave at? I sometimes look at 1min bars but it is often very noisy and gives off bad signals. If AH holds we could already be done. I would still expect a retest though.
Hey Rich,
ReplyDeleteI had initially thought Wave 4 from Jan 6th was going to be an ABC down affair but yesterday revised my count to a 5 wave down, same as yours
I think we concluded Wave 5 this morning, time will tell
Thanks for your charts
Best
SS
SS - I agree. We got our retest already. Once we get above this morning's high, we should really run to the close. ES 853 should be the next test after that.
ReplyDelete