Friday, January 9, 2009

Is the Bear Rally Over? Not Likely...

Well, we're very near some critical levels for the Bull Case (bear market rally) to hold. Here are the key areas and numbers:

- Trendline up from the lows just below (in the ES 875 area)
- The 61.8% retracement (ES 887)
- Strong support at ES 880
- A fib relationship of C=A*.618 at ES 882
- A fib relationship of C=A*.786 at ES 875
- The 78.6% fib retracement at ES 872
- A fib relationship of C=A at ES 865

Let's not forget that it is OPEX next week, so there will be every reason to get the market to rally. At the end of the day though, if ES 852 gets penetrated, then I'll mark the rally complete and start shorting every bounce.

Now, since we're looking for a reversal, it won't be safe to really go long until we have one. Without the benefit of Monday's price action, the current key reversal level is ES 898.25 with a confirmation at ES 910.

With that said, here is my updated 60min and 15min charts. I hope this retracement has been profitable for everyone. I know my account has recovered nicely ;-).


3 comments:

  1. Hey, the comment box works now. I just want to drop a thank you for sharing your chart.

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  2. Great charts! 853 is our magic number in the SP, if we blow through there the bears will be eating steak all spring!



    http://stock-market-club.blogspot.com

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  3. Steve, yeah I didn't realize it wasn't working until someone let me know ;-). Hopefully, we can all learn something from the charts and make some money while doing it!

    Ray - Absolutely, but I'm not a believer (yet) that we will. I haven't seen anything in the charts that says we will. But hey, it won't be the first time I've been wrong and certainly won't be the last.

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