We got all the ingredients we were looking for today. Move up, successful retest of the lows, and continued strength the rest of the day. I'm looking for a gap up tomorrow, a failed retest of ES 853, then we should go down to our next key support area around ES 825 and then blast on up to ES 880 area where I'll start adding my puts.
Best of luck!
Posts
Just to confirm...is subwave 3 definitely over? Closing above SPX 820 means we're in subwave 4 now, right?
ReplyDeleteGautsid,
ReplyDeleteI'm counting w1 of 5 complete. w2 of 5 should be broken into an A-B-C. I'm forecasting 'A' finishes near ES 853, 'B' finishes around 825 and 'C' finishes around 880. Then we would start w3 of 5 that should take us to new bear market lows.
Hope that helps.
Yes, I appreciate the answer and your blog in general.
ReplyDeleteAlways appreciated..
ReplyDeletehi Rich,
ReplyDeleteMy first post here. Nice charts.
One question for you, how did you know Wave2 will retrace 61.8%? Is it possible that it retraces by 50% or 31.8% only...?
Cheers.
snpmonster,
ReplyDeleteCertainly a w2 can retrace less than 61.8% and often does. However, my experience has been that when the market is at the point of a major trend change, the w2 retracement is very high. This high retracement challenges all the market participants to the fullest. In this case, the bulls start thinking we're off to 1100. The bears start worrying that we're off 1100. Those w/ weak convictions buy or sell the wrong side of the trend. Weak retracements don't do that. That is why you generally see weak retracements in w4 positions w/ consolidation stretching the patience of the market participants. Hope this helps