Thursday, November 5, 2009

Getting close to completing wave 2...

The answer to last night's post was a resounding no. The gap open that didn't get filled was first sign that we were going to retrace the fed selloff from yesterday. The market found a whole of sellers sitting at the bottom side of my target (1065), and it appeared to be distribution all afternoon. However, while divergences are showing up on the hourly charts, none of the indicators have turned down yet giving us our sell signal. So, from here we need a hourly bar to close down to turn the indicators down and give us a preliminary signal that the divergence is in.

In addition, any break of 1059 is also a sell signal that wave 3 has started. What I'm expecting tomorrow is a gap open. If it gaps up (exhaustion--common at the end of a move), I expect it to be sold hard for the rest of the day. If it gaps down (acceleration--common in wave 3s), I expect the gap to be unfilled with selling the rest of the day. But just like all forecasts: confirmation is best. Should we close above 1075, then I'll start getting worried that we are once again extending to the upside.


  1. Rich, very much enjoyed the picture of your beautiful family. You deserve much success.


  2. Thanks Sean, I'm kind of fond of them ;-).