Tuesday, November 17, 2009

We should be in 3 of 5 of A (or primary wave 2 top)

Key support held today, and while the wave 4 ended up not being a running flat, it did put in a nice wave B triangle, thrust, and reversal. With that said, the best scenario for the bears is that we are in the last small leg of either primary wave 2 or another wave 'A' with another 'B' wave coming (to 1080).

The thing that makes me the most perplexed is that the USD rallied today and the market held its ground. Maybe that is why our wave 5 is looking so weak as it is really swimming up stream against the strength in the USD. The SPX should be sitting closer to 1080 right now based on where the USD is trading, so something is going to give and likely soon. Either the USD drops and supports the markets rise, or the USD takes off and the market really tanks -- hard.

Watch any move below 1106 tomorrow as it could trigger lots of selling. We have overhead resistance starting at 1111 and goes all the way up to 1118 (hourly swing target). Right now I have little confidence that the market will make it to its daily swing target (1128).


  1. Excellent commentary and you sem to be spot on in your analysis regarding USD and SPX. It should be interesting..........thanks a lot for the good work!!

  2. Rich, I found your site about a month ago surfing through TA-blog investment sites. I have been extremely impressed with your detailed analysis. I'm a amateur TA trader (mostly crude and natty), and have not really become familiar with EWs. Learning a awful lot here. Your site is now a daily read - appreciate the effort you put into it.

  3. Thanks guys! I'm learning all the time too, and I enjoy passing along any analysis that might be helpful!

  4. Hi Rich,
    I thing this is the last up move for tomorrow/OPEX day with the target of 1119-1121 in cash, here is my analysis for tomorrow: http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/2009/11/last-bull-ah-week-is-almoust-over.html

  5. "the best scenario for the bears is that we are in the last small leg of either primary wave 2 or another wave 'A' with another 'B' wave coming"
    It's a good scenario. My perspective is one more thrust up, then down hill for a long long time.
    To see my daily analysis, visit:

  6. dr lievesey / ceo trader,
    I think we are in agreement on the one more high, but will the dollar play spoiler and have us miss the targets or blow past them? Hourly swing high target is 1118. Daily is 1128. A break of 1100 sends us down to at least 1080.