Thursday, November 12, 2009

Today, the USD got some legs...

...and the market didn't like it one bit. Since my previous wave 4 target didn't hold back the sellers today, I had to relabel my waves to show that we have now completed our wave 4 (or are near completion with a possibility of one slightly lower low or retest). However, there is a problem brewing for the market: the USD. So far the price action is looking very impulsive although we still have some work to do on confirmations. You can see from my 30 min EUR/USD chart that we have the makings of a very impulsive move. We'll have to see what happens in the next retracement, but if it doesn't overlap wave 1 before getting to a new low, then that would spell trouble for the market. Here are a couple scenarios to consider:

1 - the USD finishes its wave 1 with the SPX finishing its wave 4. While the USD retraces, the SPX puts in a failed wave 5 and the market tanks once the USD gets going again.

2 - the market already topped, and we are going to see a breakdown if the SPX drops below 1080.

3 - the USD just finished an A-B-C and the bull market in liquidity continues to initial target of 1128.

Best of luck!


Post a Comment